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Featured, Press Area, Market Study

The construction sector is a cornerstone of the EU economy. It contributes around 9% of the EU’s GDP and provides direct employment to 18 million people and indirectly supports 24.2 million jobs. This sector in the EU is made up of approximately 5.3 million businesses, with over 99% of them being small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). 

This highlights its significant role in driving economic growth and providing employment opportunities across Europe. But, its impact extends beyond economics, addressing critical social, climate, and energy challenges.



KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN EUROPE.

Improving Environmental Sustainability

Aging Building Stock: Many buildings in Europe are old, leading to high energy consumption.
Implementing new technologies and methods to improve productivity and sustainability.
Low Renovation Rates: Increasing the rate of renovations is crucial to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.

According to Arthur D.litte, the renovation of 35 million buildings by 2030 presents a tremendous opportunity for the European construction sector. This ambitious goal is part of the EU’s broader strategy to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, aligning with the European Green Deal.

Promoting Energy Efficiency.
Reuse and Recycling: Encouraging the use of recycled materials and reducing waste can help create a more sustainable construction ecosystem.



Complexity of Supply Chains

Dependence on Energy-Intensive Inputs: The construction sector relies heavily on materials like steel, glass, aluminum, cement, and various chemical products, which are energy-intensive to produce.

Supply Chain Management: Improving the efficiency and sustainability of supply chains is essential to reduce the overall environmental footprint.

Workforce Availability and Skills

Construction requires a large workforce, but there is a shortage of skilled labor.
Aging Workforce: Many experienced workers are retiring, creating a gap that needs to be filled.
Attracting Younger Workers: Making the construction industry more attractive to younger generations through training programs and career opportunities is vital.

The large-scale skills partnership for construction under the EU Pact for Skills is a crucial step towards addressing the evolving needs of the construction sector. By aiming to train at least 30% of the workforce by 2030.

While the major construction and public works companies are well-equipped to carry out this transformation, subcontractors and the whole fabric of SMEs and ETIs remain under pressure. Access to training is much easier for these companies, as is investment in cleaner vehicles (because a major part of the construction industry’s carbon footprint lies in the transport of materials).

Bouygues Construction, for example, communicates extensively on this point with the implementation of a “climate strategy”. The roll-out of their in-house “Climate Action” training program continues, with 43% of employees already trained.



FOCUS ON THE SITUATION IN EUROPE

According to ING’s latest report, the European construction volumes are expected to see a decline of about 1.5% this year due to high interest rates and rising building costs. This is a down on ING’s previous forecast (-0.5%), mainly because of revised Eurostat data. However, the outlook for next year is more optimistic.

The production of building materials is beginning to show signs of recovery, likely driven by improvements in supply chains and increased demand for renovation and infrastructure projects.

Renovation is becoming a focal point in the construction sector. 

Beyond new homes or new infrastructures, the RMI market (Repair, Maintenance and Improvement) is also key in the construction sector. “RMI market remains under pressure as cost of living continues to impact people’s large expense decisions”, explains Gael Umano, UK Risk Underwriter & Deputy Group Risk at Cartan Trade. RMI data is important to follow to better understand current trend and impact it can have on the smaller and medium size construction firms. 

According to Eurostat, from 2021 to 2026, the building renovation market in Europe is estimated to increase by 55.6 billion $.

Despite the temporary disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis, the outlook for residential energy efficiency and sustainability upgrades could be promising. However, Cartan Trade is rather cautious about the short-term impact of the easing of interest rates and the ending of certain government subsidies (such as the PTZ in France).


FOCUS BY COUNTRY

The varying trends in house prices across the EU.
Poland and Spain have seen significant increases in the prices of newly built homes recently.
In contrast, France and Germany are experiencing declines in house prices for both new builds and existing homes.
The Netherlands has also seen a slight decline in new house prices in the first quarter of this year.

The housing market in many EU countries is experiencing a resurgence in prices after a period of decline.
In Poland, the prices of existing homes increased by over 4% in the first quarter of the year.
Similarly, Spain and the Netherlands saw house prices rise by 2% during the same period.
On the other hand, Germany, facing a more sluggish economic situation, experienced a decline in house prices by 1.1%.



According to Christophe Pennellier, Senior VP & Chief Risk Officer of Cartan Trade, the construction market remains under pressure and highly exposed to insolvencies (it was the sector that saw the biggest increase in insolvencies in 2024, particularly in France).
Indeed, the consumer market is still sluggish, pending the interest rate cut that is stifling the market. But the expected easing of interest rates will only allow for a very slow recovery in activity.
A significant upturn in building permits over a considerable period will be necessary to foresee a recovery of the entire sector.

CARTAN TRADE KEY FACTORS TO EVALUATE BUYERS’ FINANCIAL HEALTH

Gael Umano highlights several key factors that Cartan Trade, as a credit insurer, analyzes for large construction companies:

Dependency to legacy contracts : Assessing the financial health of the company through the weight of legacy contracts, especially those with fixed prices, can pose significant challenges in a high or medium inflation environment.
A very recent case in the UK: ISG which filed for administration on the 19/09, blaming those legacy contracts for its failure. This is the largest construction bankruptcy in the UK since Carillion in 2018. ISG was around £2bn of turnover and about 2,000 employees.
◆ Level of Debt: High levels of debt in the construction sector can be particularly challenging when interest rates remain elevated.
◆ Structure of growth: Numerous construction companies are chasing growth at the expense of margins.
◆ Quality of the Order Book: The quality of a construction company’s order book is crucial, especially in terms of how contracts are negotiated (Fixed-Price or Inflation-Indexed Contracts).

In the years ahead, it will be also important to keep a close eye on the level of investment committed to transforming these companies and tackling their main challenges, as well as their level of debt.

By evaluating these specific factors, Cartan Trade can better analyze the financial resilience of construction companies and provide meaningful highlights to our customers to secure their trading. 

Contact us for more about our credit insurance solutions.

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Featured, Market Study

The landscape of automotive innovation has shifted over time. Since the invention of the automobile over a century ago, Europe played a pioneering but today has no longer its position of prominence.

Indeed, in the early 2000s, China decided to go electric. But it’s only in 2015 the European Continent began its transition, confronted with:

→ Volkswagen Emissions Scandal (Dieselgate),

→ Rising Environmental Concerns and the Paris Climate Agreement.

So today, the landscape for electric vehicles (EVs) is evolving, bringing both economic and political challenges.


According to IEA, the surge in electric car sales during 2023 is impressive:

Electric car sales are neared 14 millions.

◆ The total electric car stock reached 40 million.

◆ This growth represents a 35% year-on-year increase compared to 2022.

◆ The 2023 figure is over 6 times higher than the electric car sales recorded in 2018.

95% of which were: in China, Europe and the United States.




Compared with Western brands, Chinese EVs are more affordable. According to the European Commission, in the EU, Chinese EVs typically sell for 20% less than EU-made models.

After a 9-month investigation, the European Commission believes that China is infringing World Trade Organization rules, and has therefore decided to apply countervailing duties from 4th July, on imports of made-in-China vehicles of up to 38%, compared with the current 10%. Chinese BEV producers benefit from significant state subsidies, posing a threat to EU manufacturers.

The EU’s intervention follows the US’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese electric cars from 25% to 100% a few weeks ago.

In a move aimed at ensuring fair competition and protecting its automotive industry, this new imposition of provisional countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, could spark a trade war. Indeed, Beijing has threatened to retaliate against European aviation, farmers and spirits makers.




So, both sides agreed to negotiate a possible compromise and have decided to engage in negotiations regarding planned import taxes on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in the European market.

These regions play critical roles in shaping the future of EVs. So it’s important for the EU to underscore the need for fair competition, environmental goals and strategic negotiations and avoid a trade war or economic retaliations, which would have repercussions for companies in the automotive sector, but not only

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Featured, Market Study

Pharmaceutical Industry

The Covid-19 pandemic thrust the pharmaceutical industry into the spotlight, intensifying the pressure to deliver swift results. Since, companies faced a host of challenges.

The pharma’s role within the healthcare system is weakening due to:

–  A sudden surge in demand which encourages research and development, but that implies high financial burden

–  Economic strains,

– Suffocating regulatory change.

To remain profitable, pharmaceutical companies need to change their operational strategy as the industry faces new challenges. This is what LloydsPharmacy, once the 2nd largest pharmacy chain in the UK, did but faced with a cliff edge.

LloydsPharmacy, which was founded in 1973, had a significant potential.


Ownership history:

Over the past decade LloydsPharmacy (Clinical Homecare, LloydsDirect, Lloyds Online Doctor and a wholesale AHH) had many owners.

– In 1973, Lloyds Chemist began when Allen Lloyd purchased his 1st pharmacy in Polesworth (UK).

– In 1997, LloydsPharmacy was purchased by Celesio AG and merged with Celesio’s existing UK subsidiary, AAH Pharmaceuticals, forming a network of 1300 pharmacies.

– In 2014, the american healthcare company McKesson acquired Celesio AG, becoming the parent company of LloydsPhharmacy along with its other units: LloydsPharmacy Clinical Homecare, LloydsDirect, Lloyds Online Doctor, and a wholesale arm called AHH.

– In April 2022, McKesson’s UK businesses, including LloydsPharmacy, the wholesaler AAH, and a travel health service, were purchased by the Aurelius Group for £477m.


Transforming the company:

LloydsPharmacy became an omnichannel company platform. This strategy was validated with the significant growth across its online offering during the pandemic.

After the purchase by Aurelius Group, as a result, LloydsPharmacy joined the Hallo Healthcare Group, the holding company brand name for some of the UK’s most renowned healthcare organizations.

So, how did a business which had 1,338 stores at the end of 2022, just a over year later disappear from the high street.

LloydsPharmacy began to exit the pharmacy market, since 2017 due to:

– Government funding cuts

– Higher operating costs.


The chain swung to a pre-tax loss of £148m in the year to 31 March 2017.

The closures began in 2017 and continued with 17 stores in 2018, 60 in 2019, 76 in 2021 and 41 in 2022.

According to the Companies House, for the year ending March 31, 2022, Lloyds Pharmacy recorded further losses, with:

– operating losses worsening from £-35m to £-57m,

– net losses of £-66m, down from £100.8 million the previous year.

The company stepped up its « rationalization program » in 2023. In October 2023, the chain was running 138 pharmacies, compared with 1,338 pharmacies in March 2022 (-90%), according to the figures of General Pharmaceutical Council (CPhC).

In July 2015, LloydsPharmacy purchased all 281 pharmacies in Sainsbury’s supermarkets for £125 million but decided to close all in January 2023.

Liquidation:

LloydsPharmacy filed for voluntary liquidation and blamed the cut in government funding for its widening losses and the reason behind its store rationalization program. 

In 2023, the chain ceased trading, with pharmacy staff transferred to their stores’ new operators.

In the statement of affairs report, the liquidators (Martin Armstrong and Andrew Bailey of Turpin Barker Armstrong Accountants) revealed that the pharmacy business owed £293m to 514 creditors, including:

– £228m owed to Diamond DCO One Limited /Lloyds Pharmacy,

– £50m owed to Aurelius Crocodile, a holding company used to control the business.

However, the financial documents show that as LloydsPharmacy had just £8.2m at its disposal to pay off its debts.

As a conclusion The pharmaceutical industry has faced challenges in recent years:

Low Margins & Diversification

Due to low margins on medications, pharmacies are expanding their offerings to include non-prescription products (parapharmacy). But this expansion requires additional investments.

Competition Risks & Regulation

In fact, the distribution of medications is deregulated, allowing mass-market retailers to enter the sector. It will intensify competition for pharmacies

LloydsPharmacy serves as a notable example. Today, the pharmaceutical industry will need to anticipate these risks and protect itself against the risk of non-payment.

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Featured, Market Study

The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improve the state of the world, by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society in order to shape global, regional and industry agendas.


The Global Risks Report 2023 produced by the WEF presents the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), and analyses severe, newly emerging and rapidly changing risks that the world is likely to face.

This 18th edition was written in partnership with : Zurich Insurance & Marsh McLennan.

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Featured, Market Study

EU inflation showed signs of a further fall across EU Member States in December 2022, due to a main fall in energy prices. The Britain’s inflation rate remains high.

Consumer prices rose 10.5 %  in December, the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, thanks to easing gasoline and clothing prices.
UK inflation hits 41-year high of 11.1% in October, as food and energy prices continue to soar.

So policymakers setting interest rates have homed in on domestic signals of inflation to try to assess how persistent higher prices will be, analyzing wage growth and increases in services inflation.

Over the course of a year, the central bank raised interest rates from 0.1 percent to 3.5 percent, and is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting in early February.

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